2024 Presidential Polls 538

An interactive electoral map derived from 538's probabilistic model for the 2024 presidential election. This article explains how we did it:

According to the 538 polling aggregator. Use this map as a starting.

How well can you tell the 2024 gop candidates apart?

The latest polls for the 2024 presidential election.

Updating average for each candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size,.

For 2024, 538 built a new presidential election forecast model from the ground up.